The Centers for Disease Control released their weekly ensemble forecast showing that the agency expects the U.S. death toll to reach between 229,000 and 240,000 people by Nov. 7, according to new forecasts.
The center said it received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 44 modeling groups. Of the 44 groups, 39 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, three groups forecast total deaths only, and two focused solely on new deaths.
“This week’s national ensemble forecast indicates an uncertain trend in new COVID-19 deaths reported over the next four weeks and predicts that 3,400 to 7,100 new deaths will likely be reported during the week ending November 7, 2020,” the CDC said in a statement Thursday.
It added: “The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week may increase in three jurisdictions and decrease in one jurisdiction … trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.”