Since early June, most of the new coronavirus cases in the United States have emerged in states that supported President Trump in the 2016 election. Since mid-June, most of the deaths from covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, have occurred in red states. At this point, 7 in 10 new cases and nearly three-quarters of new deaths are occurring in states that supported Trump, which constitute about 57 percent of the population.

In other words, at this point, the pandemic is largely a reed-state phenomenon.

The red-state numbers match the evolution of the pandemic in Brazil closely. Brazil and India are two of the hardest-hit countries internationally, though India’s far-larger population means that the effects of the pandemic have been more muted on a per-person basis.

Since the pandemic began, the number of new cases in red states has tracked closely with the total in Brazil, which is about 14 percent larger.

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